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Trump Fed Rate Cut Call Meets NFT Liquidity Crisis

President Donald Trump called for an emergency Federal Reserve rate cut via Truth Social on March 12, demanding that Fed Chair Jerome Powell slash borrowing costs before next week’s scheduled FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing a 99% probability of no cut, and for the liquidity-starved NFT ecosystem, the message is clear: relief is not coming soon.

TLDR KEY POINTS

  • Trump urged Powell to cut rates immediately in a Truth Social post, calling the Fed “too late” ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting.
  • CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability rates hold at 3.50-3.75%, with Goldman Sachs pushing the first cut forecast to September.
  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 18 (Extreme Fear), while blue-chip NFT floor prices have fallen 12-28% in 30 days as digital asset liquidity tightens.

Markets Overwhelmingly Expect a Hold on March 18

Trump’s demand for an intermeeting rate cut faces near-unanimous market opposition. CME FedWatch data shows a 99.2% probability the FOMC will keep rates steady at 3.50-3.75% when it meets on March 17-18. The policy statement drops at 2:00 PM ET on March 18, with Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

The last time the Fed made an intermeeting cut was March 15, 2020, during the onset of COVID-19. No emergency action has occurred in the six years since, and the current backdrop of rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict gives the committee even less room to ease.

Goldman Sachs has pushed its first rate cut forecast from June to September 2026, with a second cut expected in December. The investment bank cited elevated inflation risks tied to the Iran war and Trump’s 15% global tariffs, both of which complicate the Fed’s path to easing.

Traders are pricing a 69.7% chance of no cut in April either, but a 68.9% probability of a June cut. The near-term picture is unambiguously tight.

NFT Liquidity Starved as Extreme Fear Grips Digital Assets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 18 on March 12, firmly in Extreme Fear territory. Yesterday’s reading was 15, last week’s 22, and last month’s a devastating 9. The sustained fear signals a market that has been hemorrhaging confidence for weeks.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index gauge showing 18 Extreme Fear on March 12 2026
Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 18 (Extreme Fear), March 12, 2026. Source: Alternative.me

Bitcoin traded at $70,211 at press time, down 0.48% in 24 hours. Ethereum sat at $2,063, off 0.21%. Both assets remain range-bound as traders wait for the FOMC catalyst.

For NFT markets, the higher-for-longer rate environment cuts deeper than headline crypto prices suggest. Blue-chip collection floor prices, including CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club, have dropped 12-28% over the past 30 days. Total NFT trading volume has declined 79% from its peak, and liquidity on secondary markets has thinned out across most collections.

OpenSea still commands roughly 67% of Ethereum NFT marketplace volume, with Blur holding below 24%. But the market is consolidating around utility-driven projects as speculative capital dries up. Active NFT participation has grown 80% year-over-year, but that growth is rooted in builders and creators, not flippers chasing floor price momentum.

Rate cuts inject liquidity into risk assets, and NFTs sit at the far end of the risk spectrum. Without easing, creator royalty revenue declines as volume drops, marketplace fee income compresses, and new collections struggle to raise mint funds from a cautious market.

The Last Emergency Cut Preceded the NFT Boom

When the Fed made its emergency intermeeting cut on March 15, 2020, slashing rates to near zero, the resulting liquidity flood helped catalyze the 2021 NFT explosion. That era saw Beeple’s $69 million sale, CryptoPunks crossing six-figure floors, and OpenSea reaching $5 billion in monthly volume.

The current environment is the inverse. Rates at 3.50-3.75% keep capital parked in Treasuries and money markets rather than flowing into digital collectibles and creator economy tokens. Trump’s pressure on the Fed reflects frustration with this dynamic, but the data suggests Powell will hold firm.

Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his term ends in May. The president signaled confidence that Warsh would be more receptive to rate cuts, though Warsh is widely viewed as more hawkish than dovish by market analysts.

What to Watch at the March 18 FOMC Meeting

The March meeting carries more weight than a routine hold. It includes updated economic projections and the dot plot, where each FOMC member maps their expected rate path through 2026 and beyond. The current median dot signals one 25-basis-point cut for 2026.

Historical data from Phemex shows Bitcoin fell after seven of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, making Powell’s forward guidance, not the hold itself, the real catalyst. Three scenarios emerge: a dovish hold (25% probability, BTC rallies 3-5%), a neutral hold (60% probability, BTC dips 2-5%), or a hawkish hold (15% probability, BTC tests toward $60,000).

The White House is also moving to offset inflation pressure independently. Trump authorized the Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is considering waiving the Jones Act to ease energy shipping costs. If oil prices stabilize, it could open the door for a June cut, the first real shot at liquidity relief for NFT creators and digital asset markets this year.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency and NFT investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.