Silver tests $90 as COMEX inventories hit lows, Fed in focus

• Lyla Velez
• February 27, 2026
• News
• 0 Comments

Key Points:

• Breach of $90 signals heightened volatility from converging macro hedges and supply.
• Tight spreads emerge as demand spikes, narrowing paper versus deliverable metal.
• Constrained inventories increase flow sensitivity, making intraday reversals more likely.

Silver’s breach of the $90 threshold marks a high‑volatility phase where macro hedging and supply dynamics are converging. The milestone is significant because it tightens spreads between paper contracts and deliverable metal when demand spikes.

The move reflects a mix of currency effects, trade policy uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risk. At the same time, constrained inventories heighten sensitivity to flows, making intraday reversals more likely than in prior cycles.

Key drivers: dollar, tariffs, geopolitics, and Fed policy

A softer dollar narrative, tariff headlines, and Iran‑related tensions have reinforced haven bids, while the Federal Reserve’s policy path remains pivotal for real yields and opportunity costs. COMEX silver inventories have been sliding; based on data from LiveMint, total COMEX holdings were about 360.64 million ounces as of February 26, down 1.21 million ounces day over day, with inventories described near multi‑year lows and roughly 88 million ounces of registered stock raising delivery‑squeeze risk.

Market practitioners have emphasized that currency trends and policy uncertainty can amplify moves when physical stocks are tight. “A breakout to the upside is in the making,” said Yuxuan Tang, Head of Macro Strategy (Asia) at JPMorgan Private Bank, citing tariff tensions and the situation in Iran as key contributors.

For context at the time of this writing, short‑term price action has been choppy: as reported by TS2, after‑hours New York trade on February 26 saw spot silver slip roughly 1% to about $88.3 after failing to hold above $90, while Mitrade noted XAG/USD was subsequently up around 2.4% near $90.60 during the following European session, illustrating elevated intraday volatility rather than a one‑way trend.

XAG/USD levels to watch: $90, $95, $100

On XAG/USD, $90 now acts as a pivot where acceptance or rejection may inform near‑term momentum. Sustained closes above that area could indicate resilience, while repeated intraday failures would underscore a range‑bound or mean‑reverting tape.

Traders often assess $95 as the next notable resistance given recent impulse strength, with liquidity pockets prone to widen around that handle. The $100 mark remains a psychological level where order‑book depth and macro headlines, especially those tied to the Federal Reserve, may disproportionately influence outcomes.