XRP has plunged more than 35% from its 2026 high of $2.40 to $1.37 as the US-Iran conflict reshapes risk appetite across crypto, threatening the momentum behind XRPL's expanding tokenization and digital ownership infrastructure.
TLDR KEY POINTS
- XRP dropped from $2.40 to $1.37 since early 2026, with the US-Iran war overriding ETF momentum and institutional adoption as the dominant price driver
- Ripple's institutional partnerships (Deutsche Bank, Aviva, Societe Generale) and RLUSD growth continue building XRPL's digital asset settlement layer despite conflict headwinds
- Analysts project XRP could reclaim $3 by year-end if peace resolution restores risk appetite for tokenized assets and digital ownership plays
XRP Shed 35% as Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggered Crypto-Wide Selloff
The token entered 2026 riding strong fundamentals: growing ETF inflows, new banking integrations, and Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin approaching $2 billion in market cap. That momentum broke on February 28, when US and Israeli forces launched airstrikes on multiple Iranian sites, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of global daily oil supply. Crude surged 17% to nearly $110, triggering a broad risk-off move that hit digital assets harder than traditional equities.
XRP initially held above $1.40 in late February before sliding to the $1.35 range by early March. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 18, deep in Extreme Fear territory, with last month's reading as low as 9.
At press time, XRP trades at $1.37 with an $84.1 billion market cap and $1.92 billion in 24-hour volume. The token is down 62% from its all-time high of $3.65, set in July 2025.
XRPL's Tokenization and NFT Infrastructure Keep Building Through the Storm
What makes this drawdown significant for the digital ownership space is its timing. Ripple had one of its strongest months of institutional adoption in February 2026, with Deutsche Bank integrating Ripple's payment infrastructure, Aviva Investors partnering to tokenize fund structures on the XRP Ledger, and Societe Generale launching a euro stablecoin on XRPL.
The company also executed a $750 million share buyback at a $50 billion valuation, signaling confidence in XRPL's role as settlement infrastructure. Meanwhile, RLUSD's Mastercard settlement pilot positioned the stablecoin as a bridge between traditional finance and on-chain commerce.
On the NFT front, XRPL continues to support native non-fungible tokens with built-in royalty enforcement, a feature that major EVM-based marketplaces have struggled to maintain. Ripple and Archax are targeting $1 billion in tokenized real-world assets on XRPL by mid-2026, while Ondo Finance is bringing tokenized US Treasuries to the ledger through BlackRock's digital liquidity fund.
The geopolitical disruption has not slowed this infrastructure buildout. Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, argues that global oil shocks could push institutions toward blockchain-based settlement tools like XRP, a chain of events he calls the "XRP Domino Theory."
What a US Victory Could Mean for XRP and Digital Asset Markets
President Trump told reporters on March 10 that US military objectives were "pretty much complete" and the conflict could resolve "very soon." XRP edged 1.7% higher to $1.37 on those comments, while Bitcoin pushed to $69,674 and Ethereum reclaimed $2,033.
CoinShares reported $619 million in crypto fund inflows for the week ending March 7, with $521 million directed to Bitcoin products. Nansen noted that crypto had "already absorbed the negatives and priced them in," suggesting the market was responding to headlines rather than fundamental deterioration.
Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, maintains a $3 year-end target for XRP, representing over 100% upside from current levels. The bearish case remains real: if Bitcoin enters sustained selling pressure and the broader conflict escalates, Randin sees XRP potentially revisiting the $0.65 range.
Outlook: Peace Dividend Could Unlock XRPL's Tokenization Roadmap
XRP remains rangebound between $1.30 and $1.50, with the Iran oil threat acting as a ceiling on risk appetite. The March 18 FOMC meeting adds another variable, as higher oil prices complicate the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline.
For the digital ownership ecosystem on XRPL, a swift US victory would likely trigger a risk-on rotation back into tokenized assets and NFT infrastructure plays. Ripple's 2026 roadmap includes Confidential Multi-Purpose Tokens for institutional collateral management and zero-knowledge proof integration for private, compliant transactions.
The $1 billion tokenized asset target with Archax, combined with Ondo's Treasury token launch and growing institutional banking integrations, position XRPL as one of the few ledgers where digital ownership infrastructure is expanding through, not pausing for, a geopolitical crisis.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks, including the potential loss of all invested capital. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.