Bitcoin holds as funding sinks; data challenge $4B squeeze

• Lyla Velez
• February 15, 2026
• News
• 0 Comments

Key Points:

• The claim is unconfirmed; liquidation estimates vary widely across sources.
• Many modeled estimates exceed $4B in potential short liquidations.
• Any dollar figure should be treated as indicative, not definitive.

The claim that a 10% Bitcoin move would liquidate over $4 billion in shorts is unconfirmed. Available reporting shows a wide dispersion of modeled outcomes that change with price, leverage, and margin settings.

Some published analyses place potential short liquidations well above $4 billion, while others land below that mark. Any single dollar figure should be viewed as indicative, not definitive, given how quickly derivatives positioning evolves.

What a 10% BTC move could liquidate

In perpetual futures, short positions are force-closed when price breaches a trader’s liquidation threshold. Aggregate liquidations from a 10% rally depend on where open interest is clustered, average leverage, and maintenance margin rules across venues.

As reported by Cointelegraph, a June 2025 analysis suggested a 10% BTC uptick could liquidate roughly $15.11 billion in shorts, while a comparable 10% decline could trigger about $9.58 billion in long liquidations. Those figures illustrate how estimates can exceed the $4 billion claim under certain distributions of leverage and positioning.

Other published snapshots show smaller or intermediate totals. An XT.com blog referenced liquidation heatmaps indicating nearly $9 billion in shorts exposed above key resistance in another scenario, while HTX Insights outlined roughly $3 billion of shorts at risk near $90,600 in late 2025. Methodological differences and timing explain much of the range.

Context on where clusters sit also matters. As LiveBitcoinNews wrote: “BTC, ETH, BNB, DOGE liquidation clusters built as Bitcoin ranges between $71422 resistance and $64500 support after $60K test.”

Funding rates, open interest, squeeze signals

Funding dynamics can amplify outcomes. As reported by BeInCrypto, funding rates fell to 2024 lows, highlighting elevated short-squeeze potential and flagging a resistance zone near $76,685 if that ceiling were to give way. Low or negative funding often signals heavier short exposure; a rapid upside move can force cover and cascade liquidations.

Open interest that builds into well-defined resistance can create asymmetric risk if price rises through that level. Conversely, if price fails and reverses, longs clustered below support can also face forced deleveraging.

Monitoring liquidation heatmaps and venue-level open interest can help frame these asymmetries. Cluster concentrations around $71,422–$76,685 suggest sensitivity to breakouts or failures near those bands, though such maps update frequently and should be treated as time-sensitive.

At the time of writing, based on data from Coinglass, Bitcoin trades near $69,874 with very high implied volatility around 12% and an RSI near 36. Short-term indicators provide context for risk conditions rather than direction, and figures may change rapidly across sessions.